Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drug, Zepbound, posted strong sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $1.9 billion, a significant increase from $176 million during the same period in 2023 when the drug first launched. Despite this impressive growth, the company’s sales fell short of initial expectations for the quarter. Zepbound’s performance met analysts’ expectations, according to a consensus estimate from FactSet.
The fourth quarter marked the first time Zepbound was available without shortages, which helped drive the strong sales. Eli Lilly’s stock rose by over 2% in morning trading on Thursday following the announcement.
Although sales were strong, Eli Lilly had previously warned investors that the drug’s growth didn’t meet their high initial projections. The company revised its sales guidance last month, citing weaker-than-expected demand for the medication.
Eli Lilly’s total sales for the year across all drugs amounted to $45 billion. Looking ahead, the company projects sales for 2025 to range between $58 billion and $61 billion. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk, the maker of competing drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, also signaled that growth in the weight-loss drug market may slow. Novo Nordisk expects sales growth to be between 16% and 24% in 2025, down from 26% growth in 2024, which brought in $40.5 billion in revenue.
Eli Lilly’s CEO, David Ricks, acknowledged the challenges in the weight-loss drug market during a call with investors on Thursday. He stated that it’s still early in the market’s development and there have been some setbacks. “There’s turbulence, and I’ll own that,” he said. “We seek to set projections that we can hit with confidence… In the back half of last year, we fell short of that.”
Ricks emphasized that the global market for these drugs is vast, with hundreds of millions of people affected by obesity and other chronic diseases, providing long-term potential.
Eli Lilly’s profit for the three months ending December 31 more than doubled, rising 101% to $4.4 billion, compared to $2.2 billion during the same period in the previous year. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue increased by 45%, reaching $13.5 billion, up from $9.3 billion the year before. However, earnings per share came in at $4.99, slightly below Wall Street’s expectations of $5.01, according to FactSet.
Zepbound is part of the GLP-1 or incretin class of drugs, which mimic hormones that regulate appetite and blood sugar. These medications have gained significant popularity as treatments for obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Zepbound’s success has helped Eli Lilly become the largest pharmaceutical company in the world.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that sales of GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. Last month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Zepbound as the first prescription drug to help treat moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in adults with obesity.
Looking to the future, Eli Lilly is testing stronger versions of its medications and is also developing an oral version.
“We enter 2025 with tremendous momentum,” Ricks said in a statement. “We look forward to strong financial performance and several important Phase 3 readouts, which, if positive, will further accelerate our long-term growth.”
